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# When to Re-Evaluate Your Investment

 28 Nov 2024

[Wiltons](https://wiltons.co.za/news-desk/author/wiltons) 

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Market turmoil is not the signal to adjust your investment strategy.

 

When markets are volatile, investors would be forgiven for wanting to make portfolio changes as a way of trying to stay in control. However, we would caution against altering your investment strategy or its execution—unless it was incorrect at the outset, or your personal or financial circumstances have changed.

 

Without significant life changes like marriage, retrenchment or retirement, the basic rule is: “Do not let shorter-term market fluctuations and negative market commentary sway your commitment to your long-term investment goals.”

 

There is much research that supports the view that investor behaviour is a destroyer of investor returns, and that investors should ‘stay the course’. Having said that, we believe that you should re-evaluate a fund in which you are invested if one of the following warning signals is triggered:

 

**1. Change in the portfolio manager(s) and /or the supporting analyst team**

The portfolio manager is the key individual responsible for delivering on the fund’s stated investment objective. Prior to making your investment, you (together with your financial advisor) would have evaluated the portfolio manager’s ability to deliver on the fund’s mandate. A change in portfolio manager necessitates an evaluation of the new portfolio manager’s ability to continue to do so. In most instances, a portfolio manager is supported by a team of investment analysts, who are likely to play a significant role in the fund meeting its investment objective over time. Therefore, changes to the analyst team also necessitate re-evaluation of the fund.

 

**2. Evidence of investment philosophy drift**

When selecting a fund to assist you in meeting your long-term investment objectives, you may have done so based on the portfolio manager’s investment philosophy—for example value, growth, or momentum focused. It may be that after a period of under-performance because the investment style has been out of favour, the portfolio manager starts to drift away from the stated investment philosophy. This style drift is likely to result in the fund neither meeting its investment objective over time nor fulfilling the role for which you selected it. This should therefore trigger the re-evaluation of the fund.

 

**3. Asset manager corporate action**

Change in the ownership structure—particularly where the asset manager has been acquired by a third party—can be very distracting for all staff, including investment professionals, if not managed correctly. Portfolio managers and investment analysts are only human, and a change in ownership could result in an inward focus. Independent, focused asset managers with significant staff ownership are well-aligned to delivering on client expectations through time.

 

**4. A better alternative emerges**

While the fund selected may continue to meet its investment objective over time, it may be that a better alternative emerges. It is important then that financial advisors (and their support team / fund selection partner) continue to research the peer group. If an alternative fund consistently delivers better risk adjusted returns, it may make sense to introduce this fund into your portfolio.

 

**5. Value for money**

It is important to ensure that you are sufficiently rewarded over the long term for the fee that you pay. A lower fee may not necessarily be an indicator of a better net return outcome. On the other hand, a higher fee needs to be scrutinised to ensure that you get value for money.

 

**6. Luck rather than skill**

When you made the initial investment, your analysis suggested that the portfolio manager had a demonstrable skill. However, over time it now appears that, for whatever reason, this outperformance proved to be because of luck, not skill. A re-evaluation is warranted, given that luck is not enduring through time.

 

**7. Significant cash flows**

Significant cash flows in either direction over a short period of time may impact a portfolio manager’s ability to implement their investment philosophy. Monitoring cash flows is therefore important. In this regard, it is also important to understand how concentrated the ‘ownership’ of the fund is, as a fund with a few large investors could be materially impacted should one or more decide to exit.

**8. Assets under management**

Certain investment philosophies’ ability to deliver outperformance reduces as assets under management grow and portfolios become unwieldy. It is crucial that the asset manager has the discipline to close to new investments, and not succumb to greed.

 

**9. Offshore capability**

With managers now able to invest up to 45% offshore, it is essential that the managers demonstrate excellent, fully integrated investment capabilities, with local and offshore assets managed holistically. While some managers may outsource the offshore holdings in their South African portfolio, we believe it to be vital that they are managed with full oversight by the South African fund’s portfolio manager(s), rather than as a bolt-on portfolio of vanilla assets benchmarked to a global index. Bolt-on, at best, does not enhance the risk/return trade-off—and, at worst, leads to unintended positions within the fund.

 

**10. Material changes to the economic and investment environment**

Over time, economies are expansionary, and investment markets deliver positive returns, but both may become over-heated. At this point, it may make sense to de-risk your portfolio by reducing exposure to high beta funds (funds that follow a momentum investment philosophy, for example) and introducing more defensively positioned funds (for example, funds that follow a quality investment philosophy). Unfortunately, timing such a move is extremely difficult, and therefore it makes sense to include a defensively managed fund to which you maintain exposure through the cycle.

 

While this list is not exhaustive, it provides some warning signals that should trigger the re-evaluation of your current fund holdings. Importantly, any change should be carefully considered in the context of your overall investment objectives, and any potential capital gains tax consequences.

We would therefore recommend that you consult with a qualified financial advisor.

 

**WRITTEN BY PAUL HUTCHINSON**

Paul Hutchinson is a sales expert in domestic and offshore funds.

 

*While every reasonable effort is taken to ensure the accuracy and soundness of the contents of this publication, neither writers of articles nor the publisher will bear any responsibility for the consequences of any actions based on information or recommendations contained herein. Our material is for informational purposes.*

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